Saturday, September 23, 2006

Civil War in America in 2008?

How could this happen again? Lets look at the issue of peak oil. When will peak oil occur?

Some people project that peak oil will occur around 2010, 2030 and beyond...The peak being where the oil production has reached its maximum rate of production. But consider a different definiton of the 'peak' this could be defined as the point where we leave the point of cheap oil
and move into the phase of expensive oil. Now when did this occur?

The price of Oil in 2003 was about $31 a barrel, now in 2004 it was about $44, in 2005 it was $55, $2006 it was about $75. So we if we defined cheap oil being below $30 as set by OPEC then
we can see that we past the peak in 2003 i.e. the point of cheap oil in 2003.

So where will Oil be in 2007? In 2007 I predict it will be $90-$100 in Q1 (Jan-Mar 2007)
and by the end of 2007 it will be $135-150. In 2008 it will be around $182-200.

But what about financial forcasting? What does that tell us about the price?

$44/$31=41% from June 2003 to June2004
$55/44= 25% from June2004 to June 2005
$75/55= 36% from June2005 to June 2006

So if we average (41+25+36)/3=34% per year on average

$75*1.34=$87 from June 2006 to June 2007
$87*1.34=$116 from June 2007 to June 2008
$87*1.34=$156 from June 2008 to June 2009

So some time around 2008 we could see prices in the range of $156? So my prediction are not too far off? But dont forget that commodities do not behave rationally like a linear chart but when in short supply can really explode to the upside like $200 in a matter of weeks.

For example read this article about what chavez has said about US invading other countries.

Well nothing is for certain but if prices did go to $150-$200 a barrel would this bring about civil war in Amercia?

Imagine that the haulage firms which move food around america went bust when the price hit around $150-$200 a barrel. The people in america would first eat their food in the fridge and then the food in the local shops. Run to get what was left of the oil gas at the pump. Dont forget that oil may not get brought in due to those firms going bust. Once all the food is eaten in the shops people who had stocked up from the shops would become the target of hungry mad max style people. Imagine what happen in New Orleans but multiplied by 52 counties in america - people who have guns and are hungry...attacking the richer counties like a civil war?

People who have more resources vs those with none...law and order could break down in a matter of a few weeks as it did in New Orleans. Even the national guard would be over whelmed and could not cope in this emergency.

We are on the verge of a major crisis in the making...Not to mention the collapse of the banking system which would call on their debt as people started to go bankrupt due to endemic shortages of resources. The financial world is like a domino set ready to set off in a cascading collapse which could happen very quickly due to the wonders of computer technology which would allow banks to sell all their holdings very quickly before the politicans could restore order once panic sets in.

Are we all living on borrowed time? Only time will tell if 2008 is the year to remember...

Thursday, September 14, 2006

NASA Sees Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice

NASA data show that Arctic perennial sea ice, which normally survives the summer melt season and remains year-round, shrunk abruptly by 14 percent between 2004 and 2005
















Interactive Ice cap meter

I thought this was another interesting piece of evidence which shows that global climate change is happening and at an alarming rate.

Could the huge drought which is affecting america be connected to the melting of the ice caps? If this melting was continue at this rate or even at a more increased rate then we would have a total melt down of the ice caps within the next 5 years which would bring us to about 2012.


Constrast this with The last few decades which have seen summer ice shrink by about 0.7% per year. This does not look good at all?

I think we gonna need to build a bigger boat?

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Maybe its just me...but this looks like pretty bad news?

Free energy what does it mean for society?

If someone did development and put into mass production a free energy device, what would that mean for us as a society?

Would it just mean cheap electricity for everyone or would it be something much more?

Would Poverty and hunger be eradicated within a decade and make long term space travel a reality? In short free energy would be a catalyst for change - we would have to undergo a spiritual awakening because it would set us free of resource limitation which has dominated our society for hundreds of years.

Free energy will either set us free of our short term resource based thinking and thus bring us closer to a new spiritual awakening or it will bring us death and destruction.

Only we can decide the fate of how this technology will be used when it becomes a reality.

Friday, September 08, 2006

Is This World A Dream?

The question came to mind one day when I was wondering what is the nature of reality. So it seemed that I was some how connected to this reality because without knowing the question who am I... we cannot understand the nature of reality.

Kant makes it clear that all knowledge begins with experience and so we are locked into understanding the world from this perspective.

Three definition of what this me really is are represented by materialism, dualism and idealism.

materialism:

everything is made of physical stuff I am just a biological robot.

dualism:

My mind is separate from my body and exists outside of the physical world.

idealism:

Thoughts, ideas, feelings are real, matter is no more real than the phantom physical things we seem to touch and see in dreams. Material objects are projections of the mind, clusters of sense data which give the false appearance of being separate hard reality.

This innocent question has brought up the age old questions that have had philosophers scratching their head since time began.

What am 1? Of what am I made? Where am 1 going? What is the right way to live? It is to these questions that the mind-body problem, with its ions history and vast literature is intimately related. What could be more important questions than these?

It would seem that the nature of reality is relative to the observer. This maybe be our reality and yet only just a dream within the mind of the great infinite creator.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Peak Oil in 2007

Food for thought...Just thought i would catch up on the Peak Oil situation by reading what Matt Savinar has researched laterly and it is very shocking to say the least.

Matt Savinar opens his
Peak Oil website with a dark prediction.

"Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."















Have a read and let me know what you think...will 2007 be a year to remember? Buy Oil today!